Bitcoin Falls, shouldn't you bargain?

Bitcoin has plummeted again!

According to the coinmarketcap data, bitcoin fell from $9,700 to $8,400 today, at around 4 am, a drop of 13%.

Bitcoin plunged on the hot topic of Sina Weibo, which shows that this time is very concerned. So, what is the cause? As an investor, can you take the opportunity to board the train?_DJMINER

Bakkt online trading is bleak

In addition to Facebook's currency issue this year, another event that has a greater impact on the currency circle is the Bitcoin Futures Exchange Bakkt launched by the Intercontinental Exchange. For details, please check out the dry goods! Can Bakkt bring a bitcoin bull market? 》.

However, on the day of the launch of Bakkt on September 23, the trading volume was terrible.

According to data released by Bakkt's official website, the total transaction volume of Bakkt bitcoin futures is only 28 bitcoins at 18:00 on the day of Beijing time. According to the price of bitcoin at that time, the turnover in the first ten hours of the online transaction was only 280,000. Around the dollar.

However, another cash-delivered exchange, CME, had 751 contracts in the first 12 hours of the launch of the Bitcoin futures contract, and CME's bitcoin futures contract corresponded to 5 bitcoins.

This means that the number of CME bitcoin futures traded reached 3,755 bitcoins in the same period of time. According to the bitcoin price estimate at the time, the turnover in the first 12 hours of the online line has exceeded 70 million US dollars, 200 times that of Bakkt. more than.

The results of Bakkt, which was highly anticipated, were very eye-popping. The positives were not honored and the holders fled.

In addition, some people think that the upcoming contract between the two major contract trading platforms of OKEx and CME is one of the reasons for the plunge.

Xu Kun, vice president of OK strategy, said that the fundamental reason for the plunge is that many factors supporting the rapid rise of BTC are gradually being digested, and there is no new driver. Bakkt, such as the long-term fever, has not immediately brought surprises to the market. The market has been sideways for a long time. If you are weak, you will be able to re-energize through the callback.

From the point of view of time, this plunge and the previous skyrocketing are all superimposed by various factors such as macro wind direction and capital movement.

Contract products are magnifying glasses of market sentiment, and the expiration of quarterly contracts is one of the objective market conditions, not a decisive factor._DJMINER

Low-altitude sentiment, falling triangle shape

Some analysts said that part of the reason for the plunge in the bitcoin was technical factors. They pointed out that the digital currency has been falling in a triangle, which is a bearish signal.

After the bitcoin plunging, OK Research sent an analysis saying that, from a technical point of view, the bitcoin price has been in a continuous pattern since it reached its peak at the end of June, but it was not possible to judge whether the market shape belonged to a falling triangle or an ascending triangle.

If the price of bitcoin breaks through the upper boundary, then the market form belongs to the latter, and will rise sharply in the later stage; otherwise, it belongs to the former, and then it will fall.

What is a rising triangle? Every time the price of the currency rises, it is put pressure on a price position, forcing the price of the currency to go down. However, due to the market optimism, there are many people who absorb the bargain. Therefore, the price of the currency does not fall to the last low point and starts to rise. The low point is getting higher and higher.

If the high point of each short-term fluctuation is connected by a straight line, and then the low point of each short-term fluctuation is also connected by a straight line, it constitutes a rising triangle and will break through at the tail of the triangle.

Then, on the contrary, what is a falling triangle?

During the decline of the currency price, each time it falls to a certain price, it will rebound. The low points will be connected to a horizontal line. The high point of each rebound will gradually move downwards. The high point connection will form a downward trend line, which is horizontal. The intersection is formed to form a right-angled triangle that is inclined downward.

Note that at the end of the descending triangle, there may be a significant drop, but it may also break up.

But this time, it is obviously a falling triangle that breaks down.

In fact, according to OK Research data, since the end of June, Bitcoin's trading volume has continued to decline, and the trend is full. Around September 20th, the price of Bitcoin continued to be unable to break through the upper boundary, and it was basically judged that the large probability belongs to the falling triangle that continues to fall.

As expected, Bitcoin fell sharply in the early hours of the morning, breaking through the support level of 9000 points and continuing to fall.

For short-term investors, it is still necessary to wait and see, if you fall further, you can bottom out._DJMINER

Long-term players are now the best time to enter

For long-term investors, you can get on the train at any time, because if you are a fixed investment, the amount of money is small, whether it is 7000 points or 8000 points, the impact is not great.

If the amount of funds is large, it is now the best time to enter, because the market will not fall to 3000 points in a big way. Instead of wasting time and waiting, it is better to enter the market early and do other things.

Shaoxia wrote an article a few months ago, "Assets for Assets: When is Bitcoin Available?" "Bitcoin is now in the bottoming stage, and the big family has already bottomed out at 3,000 points at the end of last year.

Moreover, in general, the high volatility of bitcoin prices means that retail speculators are participating, and if the market exhibits low volatility, then the market is usually in the stage of integration and accumulation.

According to the coinmarketcap data, the volatility of bitcoin is slowly getting smaller from 2011 to now, which means that Bitcoin investors are becoming more mature and more rational.

It has been half a year since the end of 2018. During this period, there have been many good news, which has further enhanced the popularity of Bitcoin. Many institutions are also engaged in cryptocurrency-related business.

For example, Facebook launched Libra, Bakkt Futures Exchange, and Wells Fargo launched financial investment services such as cryptocurrency investment and custody.

Earlier this year, a joint survey by investment management companies (ARKInvest) and Coinbase showed that there were more than 10 million users of Bitcoin worldwide.

They calculated the approximate number by dividing the total market value of Bitcoin by the average balance of Coinbase users. As the largest cryptocurrency compliance exchange in the United States, Coinbase is the leader in the field of cryptocurrency exchanges, and its conclusions are somewhat representative.

Of course, I have to remind you that Bitcoin, as a high-risk and high-yield “alternative investment” category, must grasp the investment ratio. According to the criteria of qualified investors, the proportion of high-risk investment generally does not exceed 20%._DJMINER